How many votes do I need? Learn how to calculate
In this guide, we’ll explore how analysing electoral voting data can help you set and achieve your campaign goals – whether that’s winning an election, increasing a candidate’s visibility, or boosting voter turnout. We’ll cover methods for calculating your voting targets and reliable sources from which to obtain data.
Set your campaign goal
Before you start analysing voting data, it’s essential to clearly define your campaign goals. Some examples include:
Winning an election
Securing the highest number of votes to ensure victory.
Example: The Red Party is competing against the Blue Party and the Orange Party. To win, it needs to obtain the highest number of votes.
Increasing a candidate’s visibility
Raising public recognition and support for the candidate, regardless of the final electoral outcome.
Example: The Purple Party is new to the electoral landscape and knows it doesn’t have a real chance of winning. For this reason, it decided to focus its campaign on getting more people to recognise it, making it more competitive in the next election.
Increasing voter turnout
Encouraging civic participation by promoting voting and civic awareness.
Example: To keep its electoral registration, the Yellow Party needs to obtain 10% of the votes in the election. Since 1,000 people vote in the district, this equals 100 people.
Calculate your vote target
Before you begin, it’s important to understand the basic concepts of electoral analysis.
Voter turnout:
This is the percentage of people who take part in an election. It’s calculated by dividing the number of voters by the number of people eligible to vote under the electoral rules.
Electoral roll (nominal list):
In Mexico, the nominal list is the electoral register that includes the names and photographs of all Mexican citizens who are registered and eligible to vote in an election.
Votes cast:
These are all the votes cast in an election. The total number may include blank votes, null votes, and valid votes.
Valid votes:
These are the votes that are considered valid for determining the election result. In some electoral systems, there are specific requirements for a vote to be considered valid.
Simple majority:
This is when a candidate or political party receives more votes than any other candidate or party. In some electoral systems, a simple majority is enough to win an election.
Methods to calculate the votes needed to win an election
In general, vote calculations depend on the country’s specific electoral rules. However, the most common rule is the simple majority. Below are two methods to calculate the number of votes needed to win this type of election.
For either method, the first step is to estimate how many voters are expected to participate. To do this, multiply the turnout rate from the most comparable previous election by the nominal list for your election.
It’s very important to always use data that’s comparable to your election. For example, in Mexico, deputies are elected every three years. However, when elections coincide with the presidential race, turnout rates are usually higher. So, if you’re calculating turnout for a 2024 legislative election, it’ll likely be more accurate to use the turnout rate from 2018 rather than 2021.
Elector-based method
This method involves estimating how many voters are expected to vote and then calculating the number of votes needed to win based on that figure. To apply this method, follow these steps:
- Identify the percentage of voters who participated in the last three elections.
2. Calculate the expected average turnout.
3. Multiply the average percentage by the number of registered voters and add 1.
Example:
Let’s imagine we’re analysing the election involving the Red, Blue, and Orange parties mentioned earlier. The district has 100,000 registered voters, and turnout in the last three elections was 36%, 33%, and 30%. Let’s assume the number of registered voters stayed the same in all three elections. Using this method, you’d need around 33,000 votes to win.
- Number of voters expected to vote in the election: 36%, 33%, 30%
- Calculate the average voter turnout in the last three relevant elections: (36 + 33 + 30) / 3 = 33%
- Multiply the average percentage by the number of voters: 100,000 * 33% = 33,000
Historical voting method
This method looks at results from previous elections in the same electoral territory to estimate how many votes you’ll need to win. To apply it, follow these steps:
- Identify the results of the most recent elections for the same type of position.
2. Calculate the average percentage of votes won by the winning candidate in the last three relevant elections.
3. Multiply that average by the expected number of voters in the next elections.
Example:
Continuing with our previous example, imagine that in the last three elections the winning candidate received 41%, 37%, and 35% of the vote. The average of these results is about 37.7%. From the earlier calculation, we know that expected turnout is around 33% of 100,000 registered voters, which means roughly 33,000 voters are expected to participate. Applying the historical voting method, you’d need about 37.7% of those 33,000 votes, around 12,400 votes (plus one) to win the election under this method.
- Identify the results of the last election in the same election: 41%, 37%, 35%
- Calculate the average of the votes obtained by the winning candidate in the last three relevant elections: (41 + 37 + 35) / 3 = 37.6%
- Multiply the average obtained by the expected number of voters: 37.6% * 33,000 = 12,408
As we can see, this second method produces a much smaller number. That’s because it takes into account the fact that votes are usually split among several candidates.That said, this method can’t be used when historical data isn’t relevant for the election you’re preparing for. Some common situations include:
- Redistricting and precinct changes. When redistricting or precinct reconfiguration happens, historical data often changes. It’s possible to make estimates if there was redistricting but no precinct reconfiguration, using past results from the sections that now make up the district. However, these estimates are less reliable.
- Changes in the number of relevant candidates. If an election usually has three candidates, but in your upcoming race two of them form an alliance and only two contenders remain, historical percentages no longer apply. In this case, it’s better to use the number of voters method.
Information sources and tools
To carry out an effective voting analysis, it’s essential to rely on trustworthy electoral data and the right analytical tools. Find the best source for your country, like the INE Election Statistics Consultation System.
