Surveying the territory for your campaign
Geo-electoral analysis is a key tool in political campaigns in Mexico, as it helps you understand population demographics; basically, where people are located across the territory based on factors like age, sex, and socioeconomic level. This content explains the basic concepts of the Mexican electoral system and introduces INEGI’s GAIA tool for analyzing population statistics.
Basic concepts of geo-electoral analysis
Although electoral rules vary across the countries (check what applies to yours), most elections can generally be grouped into three levels:
Federal level:
The presidential election takes place nationwide; elections for senators are held at the state level; and elections for deputies are conducted by federal electoral district.
State level:
Each state holds elections to choose the governor statewide, as well as elections to choose deputies by state electoral district.
Municipal level:
Each municipality holds elections to choose the mayor.
An electoral district is the basic unit of political representation in the country and is made up of electoral sections.
An electoral section is the smallest territorial electoral division. Each section has an assigned number, a specific geographic location, and a set number of polling stations, depending on how many registered voters live in that area.
DATA SOURCE
Although there are multiple sources of information on population demographics at the national, state, and municipal levels, there’s only one public source with demographic data at the district and section levels: GAIA. It’s available here. To access district- and section-level information, you need to click on the tab “Census statistics at geo-electoral scales.” This is a Mexican platform, but you can probably find similar information sources specific to your country.
With these tools, you can explore and download statistics for your section or district. As a general recommendation, for any election it’s important to understand the geographic distribution of:
Men and women
Population groups, especially minorities, young people and older adults
Education levels
Income levels
Number of households
Population density
This kind of data helps you see the territory more clearly and make smarter campaign decisions.
What data should I analyze?
The most important data for you will depend on your electoral goal, your campaign profile, your resources, and your target voters. For example, if you’re running in the election for the 10th district seat in Jalisco and you’ve identified that you need to win the vote of young people aged 18 to 23, some of the key data you’ll need to look at might include:
Age
Age is a key factor in understanding this demographic group and how they relate to politics. You should analyze the age distribution in the municipality of Zapopan to see whether there’s a large number of people between 18 and 23 years old.
Sex
Sex also matters, since there can be significant differences in voting behavior between young men and young women.
Education level:
Education level can also influence young people’s voting behavior. You could analyze how many young people have higher education and how that correlates with participation in municipal elections.
Marital status:
You could look at how many young people in this age group are single, married, divorced, or widowed. This can help you understand how their personal circumstances might influence their voting behavior.
Income
Analyzing income levels among young people in this group can help you understand their needs and concerns, which may shape how they vote.
Employment status:
Looking at whether young people are working or not can also be relevant, since those who work may have different needs and concerns compared to those who don’t.
Use of social media:
Finally, you can analyze social media use within this demographic. Young people often rely on social media for information and to stay connected with friends and family, so you could design a campaign strategy that focuses on social platforms to reach them more effectively.
